Correct Answer is : Has predicting the fate of the global economy become more difficult in a volatile post-crisis world, or does the IMF suffer from an inherent optimism bias?

A look at the historical data on forecasts made by the IMF in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) reports seems to suggest that optimism bias may be the bigger culprit.

The large negative forecast errors in the recession years skewed the historical averages.

Over the past few years, the growth forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have displayed one consistent pattern

the forecasts are rosy at the start of the year, then revised downwards towards the end of the year, and the actual estimates of real growth turn out to be even lower.

Has predicting the fate of the global economy become more difficult in a volatile post-crisis world, or does the IMF suffer from an inherent optimism bias?

IBPS PO Mains 2016 Paper for online practice

Question : 134 of 200

Marks: +1, -0

134.

A look at the historical data on forecasts made by the IMF in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) reports seems to suggest that optimism bias may be the bigger culprit.
The large negative forecast errors in the recession years skewed the historical averages.
Over the past few years, the growth forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have displayed one consistent pattern
the forecasts are rosy at the start of the year, then revised downwards towards the end of the year, and the actual estimates of real growth turn out to be even lower.
Has predicting the fate of the global economy become more difficult in a volatile post-crisis world, or does the IMF suffer from an inherent optimism bias?

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