Unemployment in Winston County has risen only 4% since I took office. Under my predecessor, unemployment rose 14%. Clearly, my economic policies are far more effective. Which of the following must be true in order for this argument to be valid?
In order for the two administrations to be compared, the socioeconomic variables must be comparable. If Winston County’s economy had relied largely upon a factory that closed down during the previous administration, then the unemployment rate would necessarily rise considerably following that event. The state of the national, state, and local economies and the demographic makeup of Winston County (e.g., no significant increase or decrease in population) need to be nearly identical for the speaker to make a fair comparison and claim that his or her policies are more effective. If Winston County’s population dropped significantly (choice A), it could explain why the unemployment rate dropped as well–but it does not support the speaker’s claim that his or her policies “ are far more effective.” Choice B, which reflects the state of the national economy, also offers an explanation for the change in unemployment rates in Winston County, again contradicting the speaker’s claim that his or her economic policies made the difference. If the speaker had implemented key policy changes (choice D) or tax incentives (choice E), they could have significantly reduced unemployment. However, the unemployment rates still cannot be compared unless other variables are comparable.